Turnover roared; sentiment didn’t. The JSE’s Main Market moved $50.7b in H1 2025—more than twice 2024’s lull and above the 2019 pre-COVID peak of $41.6b. Yet June closed with shrinking market cap, falling prices, and breadth that turned decisively negative.
5 Fast Signals
- Turnover: Main Market value traded hit $50.7b (H1 2025), a new high-water mark vs $41.6b in 2019.
- Valuation Slippage: Market cap down 2.29% m/m to $1.68t (June).
- Price Action: Average prices −1.5% m/m in June; −4.68% YTD. 72% of Main Market stocks (37/52) fell; the JSE Index −5.5%.
- Breadth & Blocks: ~60% of all listings (67/110) declined in June even as block trades rose 9.6% YoY; institutions accounted for 18% of value, a three-year high.
- Volatility: Benchmark swings widened to 3.6% daily in June (vs 2.1% in May).
What’s Really Driving This
- Earnings Gravity:
Results deteriorated for 31 of 52 Main Market companies on a YoY quarterly basis. Capital rotated away from weak profit trajectories, with the Junior Market volume −54% YoY and −57.3% m/m in June—classic risk-off in smaller caps. - Rates Helped—But Only the Few:
The BOJ trimmed policy from 7.0% to 5.75% over the past year. Rate-sensitive names saw brief lifts (e.g., Scotia Group +18% over the 12 months to June), but the equity bid stayed narrow. Why? Corporate bonds near 10% yields offer a clean, low-drama alternative. When fixed income pays double-digits, timing equity turnarounds feels optional. - Election Overhang:
Tight polling and calendar risk increased hesitancy. Foreign participation cooled—USD Equities Index −11.05% YoY—and locals pressed pause; June volumes −26.6% m/m. Seasonality didn’t help: post-mid-May, investors historically “go on holiday” until August.
Winners Still Win (Because Earnings Still Win)
- Carreras: +72.5% over one year, powered by improved profits.
- Sagicor Group: +4.5% YTD, underpinned by better performance.
- NCB Financial: Profitability not “bad,” but sentiment remains cautious given overhangs.
- Jamaica Broilers: Momentum interrupted by sector-specific shocks—illustrating how quickly the market punishes uncertainty.
Read: liquidity is back, but it’s choosy. Capital is rewarding visible earnings momentum and withholding mercy elsewhere.
Institutional Footprints: Repositioning, Not Breakdown
The surge in block trades and the 18% institutional share of value traded indicate active portfolio rotation—not a liquidity crack. Big money is moving along three axes:
- From weak earnings to defensible ROE.
- From broad beta to names with catalysts.
- From Junior Market risk to Main Market balance-sheet comfort (or to 10% bonds).
Playbook for H2 2025
- Focus on EPS Trajectory: Rate cuts create a doorway; only earnings growth walks through it. Screen for sequential EPS improvement, not just YoY optics.
- Yield vs. Equity Risk: With ~10% corporate yields, equities must offer either (a) clear growth visibility or (b) deep value with identifiable catalysts.
- Election Timeline: Expect a wider risk premium until the ballot dust settles; watch breadth and foreign flows for the first confirmation of a turn.
- Liquidity Pockets: Follow the blocks. Institutional footprints will likely precede index inflection.
Bottom Line
H1 2025 proved the JSE can move size again. But flow without conviction is not a bull market. Until profit momentum broadens, the market will keep paying up for scarcity—and docking everything else. The BOJ has cracked the door; fundamentals decide who gets in.
